How Predictable

So you’re sayin’ we have a chance…

Tonight yet another MLS season kicks off. ESPN won’t be pulling in the casual fans -- or even all of the hard core ones -- going up against the Sweet 16 over on CBS. I’ll probably be flipping between Philly-Seattle and the Kentucky-Cornell game. At least the latter doesn’t tip until 9:30 so Andy Bernard can catch it after his show is done.

Since Mark put me on the spot, here are my predictions for how the MLS standings will play out (listed in order of finish).

Real quick: don’t forget to join our Fantasy MLS league. You have less than 12 hours.

Eastern Conference

Columbus Crew

It’s not that I’m a huge fan of the Men in Yellow, there just isn’t much else in the East. Robert Warzycha is going to have to find ways to give GBSchelotto games off here and there to rest his aging legs. The team also needs someone to fill Alejandro Moreno’s hard working boots.

Chicago Fire

I’d probably have the Fire first if they hadn’t just changed goalkeepers this past weekend. Feel bad for Jon Busch, but Andrew Dykstra does give Chicago an extra six inches. There are some questions on the back line, but the offense should be just fine with former Fulham mates (Tom) Collins John and Brian McBride reuiniting.

D.C. United

You can argue that Mark and I are homers, but again, this comes back to the East being fairly weak. Troy Perkins gives United a huge boost in goal, though he’ll have to work to organize the guys in front of him. Offense, which was an Achilles heel for Curt Onalfo in K.C., won’t be as much of a problem here with Jaime Moreno having a spectacular preseason and good depth.

Toronto FC

This is purely because of Preki on the bench. They’ll be tough at home, as always, but I don’t see them doing enough on the road to make the playoffs for the first time because I think the West is getting five teams in again. The “de’s” -- Julian de Guzman and Dwayne De Rosario -- will determine how far this side goes.

New York Red Bull

A lot of this comes down to Juan Pablo Angel’s health. If he’s healthy, Hans Backe will fashion together the back line to keep them in games. I don’t trust Bouna Coundoul in goal, and therefore I have a feeling we’ll see quite a few 4-3 and 3-2 games from Red Bull. They would get a boost if they sign a second DP this summer.

Kansas City Wizards

This might be a little hopeful for the ‘Zards, but I have a gut feeling that Davy Arnaud is going to have a career year. Jimmy Nielsen might actually be an upgrade over Kevin Hartman who last year didn’t give K.C. many points by himself, something every keeper needs to do for a successful side.

New England Revolution

I think this is the year the wheels finally fall off for Steve Nicol. With Taylor Twellman’s future up in the air and Steve Ralston gone, I don’t see where the offense comes from. Shalrie Joseph might finally earn the MVP he’s up for every year if the Revs make the playoffs, but it’s not going to be a pretty team to watch.

Philadelphia Union
Like the Revs, the Union are probably going to play a lot of 1-0 games. I just don’t trust their defense or Chris Seitz in goal as much as I trust New England’s back line and keepers. This is a long-term plan, though, and Peter Nowak will be successful in Philly.

Western Conference

Seattle Sounders

The top three in the West are pretty tight, but I like Seattle by a smidge. As long as Kasey Keller stays healthy, they should win the Supporters’ Shield. The offense can be inconsistent, but they won’t have to score more than one or two goals on most nights. It helps having the best coach in MLS history on the bench.

Real Salt Lake

It’s not that I’m rooting for the two former Dukies in charge of this team, but I like RSL a lot. Kyle Beckerman may never really crack into the National team, but he is one of the best holding midfielders in MLS at this point. They still can’t win much on the road and they don’t have a second scoring option aside from Findley so I can’t see them finishing first.

Los Angeles Galaxy

Landon Donovan will miss enough games (assuming he isn’t sold this summer, which I don’t think he will be) to knock them down to third. The back line is a mix of real young and real old. Aside from LD, I’m not sure that Edson Buddle can carry the scoring load without much help from the midfield.

Houston Dynamo

Dom Kinnear may well pass Sigi when all is said and done (and to me is the best domestic coach USSF could hire if they go that route after Bob Bradley). However, the midfield will struggle without Stu Holden and Rico Clark. Scoring will be an issue when Brian Ching is in South Africa, but Pat Onstad and the defense will keep them in most games.

Colorado Rapids

Unlike Mark, I think the CRapids have talent to support the best forward tandem in the league. As long as they don’t blow out their knees again. It’s certainly an English style team following in their manager’s lead. I do like the addition of Jeff Larentowicz in the midfield to help the aging Pablo Mastroeni.

FC Dallas

I think Dallas will be a good side this year, but without Jeff Cunningham going off like he did in the second half last year I don’t see them climbing the table. They have two above average keepers, but I wouldn’t feel too safe with either if I was a Dallas fan.

Chivas USA

I’m not expecting much out of the Goats this year. I’ve never been a Sacha Kljestan fan and Chivas is in a quandary. They need him to be one of the best midfielders in the league, but if he actually played up to his potential they would lose him for over a month for the World Cup. The only reason I don’t have them lower is because San Jose is that bad.

San Jose Earthquakes

The only saving grace for this club is having Joe Cannon in goal. Frank Yallop’s fall from grace ends in a mid-season firing.

MLS Cup

Skipping through the playoffs -- take the top five from the West and top three from the East -- I’m going with Seattle over Chicago. The sad bit is that the best two teams actually play the week before in the Western Conference final.

- Pat Walsh

New Year, New Hopes For Success

The Fire Will Be Flying High Again

I actually fell asleep for part of the Maryland game on Sunday when it looked like they were out of it. I woke up with about 5 minutes left and watched the comeback begin. Part of me wishes I had just stayed asleep. I was unaware of it, but I was standing in front of my tv when Korie Lucious drained the 3 at the buzzer to win it for Michigan State. My wife said I sank to my knees and buried my face in the carpet, leaving it there for a good 30 seconds or so. She said she had never seen that from me before, and I guess I was so numb that I didn't even realize I had reacted that way. As blogger-mate Walsh said "I would have rather lost by 15 than to have to re-live that shot over and over again on every channel."

Agreed, Pat. At least Georgetown once again s*it the bed in the 1st round, so there's some solace in that. Now if only Duke can get their asses handed to them sometime this weekend, all will be right with the world. And yes, in case you're wondering, I'm rooting for Northern Iowa Friday night.

Okay, enough about that, let's get to the most interesting (?) topic of the week, which is the start of the MLS season. Truth be told, there have been so many changes in the offseason that it's been hard to follow. We don't know how quickly these teams will gel, how they'll do with new coaches, and what new players will emerge as stars. One thing is for sure; Dallas, Colorado, and Kansas City will all have continue to have crappy attendance.

I'll submit my prediction in order of finish, and Pat will do the same later in the week. Here goes:

Eastern Conference:

Chicago: With Blanco and Chris Rolfe gone, will Patrick Nyarko be able to take some of the goal-scoring pressure off Brian McBride? Players seem to really like new Coach Carlos de los Cobos' style and knowledge.

Columbus: Robert Warzycha hopes to get at least one more solid season from aging veterans Frankie Hejduk and Schelotto as they mentor the younger players.

DC United: Going out on a limb here. As my colleague Craig Stouffer (The Examiner) pointed out, "They play better when they have fewer games." With no outside tournaments other than the U.S. Open Cup to play in, they have no other distractions from the MLS grind.

New England: Lost several solid players over the past 2 years, but somehow Steve Nicol has his team in contention every year. The ever-present Shalrie Joseph might be the league's toughest player.

New York: Teams with new stadiums tend to do well in them their 1st year. Besides, the Red Bulls couldn't get any worse than last year. Some interesting roster moves might put this team in contention for a playoff spot.

Philadelphia: The last time Peter Nowak was involved with an expansion team (Chicago), they won MLS Cup. He won't pull off any miracles this year, but the Union will be surprisingly competitive.

Toronto: There's not a lot of youth on this team, which could play a factor when the team plays in the heat of July and August. Dwayne DeRosario will need to play out of his mind to give this team a chance.

Kansas City: I don't think firing Curt Onalfo will help. Outside of Davy Arnaud, Jimmy Conrad, and (maybe) Josh Wolff, I don't know who else on this team would start for almost any other team.

Western Conference:

Los Angeles: I'm allowed to put an asterisk here...as long as Donovan stays the entire year, I think L.A. wins it here. If he goes to Europe after (hopefully) a successful World Cup campaign, then all bets are off.

Seattle: Sigi Schmidt worked wonders with this team last year. They won't sneak up on anybody in 2010, but that doesn't mean their fans won't see a ton of wins in their second season.

Houston: Dominick Kinnear is a lot like Steve Nicoll in that his teams are in the thick of it every year. He's lost great players like Rico Clark and Stuart Holden, but has a knack for finding solid replacements and fitting them into his system.

Real Salt Lake: I know it looks crazy to put the defending MLS Champs here, but it just shows how competitive I think the West will be this year. But I like their roster and wouldn't be surprised to see them repeat as champions.

Chivas USA - They have a good core of players like Bornstein and Kljestan, but this roster is full of grizzled vets who, like Toronto, might fade down the stretch in the summer heat.

FC Dallas - They have a pretty good defense, especially with the addition of Kevin Hartman, but can Jeff Cunningham score enough goals to get this team some wins, and heaven forbid, a few fans?

Colorado - Conor Casey is one of the league's premier target forwards, but there isn't enough creativity and talent around for him to be truly lethal. Anybody want to place an "over/under" bet on Pablo Mastroeni ejections this year?

San Jose - When I look at this roster, I don't see a single player who scares me. Will challenge Kansas City for the title of league's worst team.

Playoffs: I still have no clue how the thing works, so I'll skip this and go right to my MLS Cup pick;

MLS Cup - Chicago over Los Angeles - The West is stronger, but the Fire have arguably the deepest roster and a coach who probably knows how to use it.

One final note; a big shout out to friend of the blog Brian Straus who has become AOL's full time MLS reporter. Brian is a great writer and will be a great addition to the very few professional soccer writers in this country. Way to go, Straus!

Walsh will be back later in the week with his predictions, and remember to sign up for our MLS Fantasy Division Pat created (see his blog from earlier in the week for the link)...

Pure Fantasy

Not quite this type of "fantasy soccer"

It’s still too soon to talk about what happened in Spokane, WA yesterday and I don’t feel like delving into the CBA, other than to say it’s for everyone’s best interest for MLS to start on time. And here we didn’t think compromise was possible in Washington, DC.

Anyway, I’ve long felt that MLS needed to do more with fantasy. It was the subject of first columns at Goal.com and I was in the running to write about fantasy for MLSnet.com prior to that until they decided to be cheap and stay in house.

If you think about the NFL, their explosion has come about in large part due to fantasy football. As a Redskins fan, there’s little chance I would’ve known who would start once Larry Johnson was essentially cut from the Chiefs if it wasn’t for the potential fantasy of Jamaal Charles. But thanks to fantasy, I did.

Friend of the Blog Kevin knows people in Seattle who were have always been fans of the English game, and now are supporters of the Sounders. Hold season tickets and all that. But they couldn’t care less about the result of a New York-D.C. United game, let alone bring themselves to watch because it doesn’t involve their beloved Sounders. However, toss in fantasy and the league is going to, at the least, drive more traffic to its scoreboard to see who had goals/assists/cards.

The one thing missing in soccer fantasy is head-to-head matchups. Now with 16 teams in the league, you could surely do a 10-team league. Sure, not everyone would have two ‘keepers to cover for bye weeks. But with situations like Preston Burpo starting for the spring in New England and the Kevin Hartman/Dario Sala situation in Dallas -- or the breaking news of Jon Busch being let go by Chicago -- it would sort itself out. The newly formed, and as our boy Craig Stouffer pointed out on Twitter grammatically horrifying, MLSSoccer.com should be on this. But you know they won’t.

As a result, we’re left with the next best thing: Major Fantasy League Soccer, or MFLS.com. And I don’t mean to downplay MFLS.com at all because it’s my favorite fantasy soccer.

I’m starting a league for the season called “Beckham’s Achilles Last Stand” and the password (case sensitive) is “Olsen.” You have until an hour before the Union make their debut in Seattle, so Thursday at 8:30 pm ET. Until then you have unlimited moves; after that you’ll lose transfers.

So join up. It’s a good way to follow the league for free. There are plenty of team previews -- Soccer By Ives, Soccernet (if you can find them), Steve Davis at SI.com has Conference Previews -- around so use them to find out the comings and goings and I know Ives has probable starting lineups.

Bushman should be in tomorrow and I’ll be back probably Thursday with predictions that will turn out better than my Oklahoma State one last week.

- Pat Walsh

The Madness

It'd be nice to get a chance to do this one more time...

The big news on the weekend of course was David Beckham’s Achilles Last Stand. Like Bushman I question if he’ll be back, but I feel he has the drive to do more than simply come back. As we’ve seen before, almost enjoys having people count him out. However, I have a feeling he’s going to move at about the same rate as Carlos Valderrama did in his final years in MLS.

But that’s not all that’s going on, so here are some thoughts on other news:

- It seems as though MLS players are about to strike on Monday. My question, which I haven’t seen raised elsewhere, is when will those potentially postponed games be played? The simple answer is that the brief period MLS was going to go dark during the group stage of the World Cup will go away and teams will try to squeeze in the games then. Fortunately, with most teams having control over the facilities they play in -- only Kansas City should really have a problem with open dates in June at their shared stadium -- scheduling will not be as big of a headache as it would have been four or eight years ago. But that also means teams like the Galaxy would miss their star player for those games. And, honestly, I’m not to want to go from watching England-USA or Brazil-Portugal to an MLS Game (I think Mark and I have some more in depth thoughts on this coming up). Ideally, everything will be sorted out before Monday, but my gut says it won’t.

- Just watched Barcelona thrash Stuttgart. Umm, that Lionel Messi kid ain’t too shabby. The positive is Bob Bradley and company won’t be facing the best player in the world because Messi is definitely better than Wayne Rooney. But that’s little consolation with the way Roonaldo is knocking in goals these days. I’m starting to wonder if it would be worth putting money down on Argentina; I just don’t trust Diego Maradona.

The Inter-Chelsea game was by far the best one this week and Inter was the better team on the day. Chelsea probably had a claim on a penalty call in the first half, but it’s hard to feel sorry for them when Didier Drogba stomps on an Inter defender after he was dragged down. In fairness to him, he had been manhandled all day, but you can’t react like that. Then John Terry was seen complaining to the referees after the game including saying “fucking shit” to the fourth on his way down the tunnel. Remind me, how did that complaining to the refs go last year after you were bounced in the semi-finals? Yeah, that’s what I thought. You stay classy Chelsea.

Also, give Columbus props for a valiant effort in the CCL. Team Zinha topped Team GBSchelotto (both scored a pair of goals), and we still don’t know why Steven Lenhart was sent off. Gotta be smart in those situations -- on a yellow in hostile territory -- as Jimmy Conrad knows. But to those of you who think that the MLS Players Union should use this as a testament to needing more resources to build MLS, you’re flat wrong. The Union has said time and again this fight isn’t about the money, but the rights.

- The best two days in sports start today. Though the World Cup remains the best tournament, it doesn’t have a pair of days like the first two of the NCAA tourney.

I thought the Terps would get a 5 seed, but now that everyone has them as the most overrated 4 seed I’m better with them there. Gary will use that for motivation in addition to Prez Obama saying that “the Terps have a great player, but MSU has a great coach.” Just more kindling to add to the fire. Granted, I wish we had a cupcake road like Duke -- how Kansas, the #1 #1 seed got that region is beyond me -- Gary will have Greivis and the boys ready and make it to the second weekend. Si, se puede!

I can’t see anyone hanging with Kansas. They have the depth, the star in Sharron Collins, and the best coach in the country right now in Bill Self. My other final four teams are Kansas State, Baylor, and Kentucky with the Jayhawks downing the Wildcats in the final.

Some upsets I have: Siena over Purdue (not sure if that’s an upset with how the Boilermakers are playing right now), St. Mary’s and Mizzou as 10 seeds to win and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Gaels make it to the second weekend, OK St taking out Ohio State in the second round because Thad Matta doesn’t realize he has more than six players, and finally, for my biggest reach, we won’t get to see the Gary Williams-Tom Izzo matchup because MSU is going down Friday night. We’ll see how poorly I do next week.

- Tiger’s back for the Masters. How much money did PGA head honcho Tim Finchem pay him to do that? The only other thing I’ll say is check out Tiger’s smile in this picture (thanks to Bill Simmons for pointing this out) with the Orlando Magic dancers in ‘07. What’s the over/under on how many he banged? Is five too low?

- Lastly, Trey Anastasio inducted Genesis into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame on Tuesday night. Phish played Watcher of the Skies and No Reply At All pretty well and it’s definitely got me back on a Genesis kick. As much of a hard time as I’ve given the U.S. Soccer HoF, how the hell is KISS not in the RnR HoF? I’m not saying that for Bushman’s benefit, but even if you haven’t bought one of the 100 million + albums they’ve sold, their influence on stadium shows alone seems like it should be enough to get them in.

Back next week to hopefully look at the start of MLS and the Terps in the Sweet Sixteen.

- Pat Walsh

The Wide World Of Sports

I know this is predominantly a soccer blog, but there are just a ton of things in the sports world I want to comment on this week. However, we will start with the beautiful game;

1. Beckham - Whether you like the guy or not, the injury sucks. Sucks for England, sucks for the World Cup, sucks for MLS, and sucks for the L.A. Galaxy, whose fans won't be seeing the above player anytime soon. An achilles injury, especially at his age, is going to be awfully hard to come back from. If you remember when it happened to Dan Marino, it was more than a year before he was ALMOST back to normal. Granted, medical technology has improved in the past 20 years, but the human body can only improve but so quickly from such a devastating injury. Isn't it weird how some of the worst injuries in sports happen during simple things like running or shifting your weight? Regardless, all the best to the guy as he goes through what is going to be some painful rehab on his part. As an anecdote, when I posted on my facebook page about the unfortunate injury, one of my non-soccer female friends asked "but he can still pose for magazines, right?"

2. Real Madrid - That giant sucking sound you hear is all of Madrid's money going down the tubes after yet another dismal Champions League campaign. Is it just me, or can you compare Madrid's failures to those of the Washington Redskins? You spend a ton of money on whom you perceive to be the best players, but then you forget the single biggest reason for success: chemistry. If you don't have it, and you can't create it, you are bound to fail. Madrid has, time and again over the past several years. Yes, they've won a La Liga title or 2 (which is quite an accomplishment), but for the high payroll this team puts out every year, you know the fans and management expect better. At least the Redskins, with their new management scheme, seem to have a better grasp on what it takes to win, however:

3. Redskins sign Larry Johnson - Well, at least they didn't break the bank to bring in some overhyped and overpriced guys who won't be productive. They've been smart in what they've done so far. I do question bringing in Johnson, though. Let's face it; he's not a poster child for community relations. He likes to beat women; it's been proven. He's a bad teammate; it's been proven. So you pair with him another "me first" guy in Clinton Portis? Should be interesting to see when they decide to stop speaking to each other and lobby to get the other one thrown out of town. However, there is scientific proof that 2 negatives form a positive. Should be interesting to see if that's the case in DC. If not, it will be the first real test of the Mike Shanhan/Bruce Allen regime.

4. Alex Ovechkin suspended 2 games - Come on! Even notorious Ovie-basher Mike Milbury said during the Caps/Blackhawks game on Sunday that the hit was legal and no cause for Alex to be ejected. He then went on to make his case that the league is getting away from the nature of hockey, which is defined by big hits (not dirty ones) and some occasional rough play. He used Ovie's hit on Jaromir Jagr in the Olympics as an example. Non-hockey people thought it was dirty. But anyone who really knows the sport, including Jagr himself, said it was legal. Just gotta wonder if someone in the league office has it in for Ovie, because he seems to be the target of too many incidents...

5. Finally, let's close with some college hoops predictions:

A. Surprises - Richmond, Cornell, Butler
B. Disappointments - Tennessee, Villanova, Purdue
C. Best Potential 2nd Round Game - BYU vs. Kansas State
D. Most Interesting Potential Sweet 16 Game - Richmond vs. Old Dominion
E. How Will Walsh and Bushman's Terps Do - Sweet 16 and get thumped by Kansas

Final Four - Kansas vs. Kansas State, Kentucky vs. Duke


Kansas is the best team in the country, but there's no way they will beat Kansas State 4 times in 1 season.

Kentucky should handle Duke easily. Seriously, how in the hell did Duke get such a weak bracket?

Kansas State vs. Kentucky - John Wall will cement his status as the #1 overall pick in the NBA draft by leading the Wildcats back to the promised land with a 70-60 win.

You read it here first.

Not The “We’re Really Expensive” League

Get off your knees, you just blew it!

Champions League -- the UEFA variety, that is -- saw four more teams knocked out this week. Normally it’d be eight, but thanks to the almighty dollar UEFA spread the round of 16 over two weeks to maximize TV income. Honestly, it’s a decision I support as everyone gets to see more games.

Of the four eliminated, two giants in AC Milan and Real Madrid were sent packing on Wednesday. That Milan are out is not a shock. The Rossoneri have been solid, but Italian teams have struggled in CL action in recent years and, frankly, not many teams have an answer for Wayne Rooney these days. The American’s best answer would be either an injury or to get John Terry to bang his wife.

However, Real spent $250M last summer, much of it on Cristiano Ronaldo (who scored their lone goal in the two legs), to be knocked out in the Sweet 16 for the sixth straight year. Just an unbelievable stat, really. Granted they’ve played good teams in Juventus (twice), Arsenal, Bayern, Roma, Liverpool, and now Lyon. Of course that means Manuel Pellegrini will be on the hot seat, especially since the Champions League final will be at the Bernabeu this year. But until they figure out a way to build team chemistry and not stay as the Galacticos, this side just seems destined to fail.

On the flip side, congrats to Lyon for a well deserved draw resulting in their advancing to the quarterfinals. The French side, as I’m reading in Soccernomics (a great book if you can get through some of the cumbersome mathematical explanations), is the “Moneyball” of soccer. They buy young, cheap players and sell them for huge profits to larger clubs like, oh I don’t know, the Real Madrids of the world. A couple of the recent world-beaters they helped develop include Karim Benzema (now with Real), Juninho, and a couple of Chelsea guys in Florent Malouda and Michael Essien. Not too shabby.

Manchester United, much to Mark’s delight, dispatched Milan like Mike Tyson used to destroy other heavyweight “contenders.” Wayne Rooney got things going with another header, doubled the lead (in the game, tripled on the aggregate) before Milan had their laces tied for the second half and the game was over. You can say all you want that Beckham and Seedorf should’ve started, but it wouldn’t have mattered. Milan weren’t going through. Period.

I’d be remiss to not mention the explosion by Arsenal at The Emirates on Tuesday as the Gunners came from behind on aggregate to thrash Porto. Nicklas Bendtner had a hat trick to lead the way and well done by him to not miss balls Bobby Convey -- or Bendtner, I suppose -- finds a way to shank. Arshavin filled in well as the playmaker with Cesc Fabregas on the sidelines and you can’t see Arsenal dropping much if Fab4 finally makes a long rumored move to Spain.

By the way, Nasri’s “wonder goal” wasn’t a wonder goal. It was crap defense. I don’t care that he was in the box, as a defender you don’t let a guy dance through three of you without touching him. This was a wonder goal.

Back here in the States, Columbus played the first competitive match -- as long as ping-pong doesn’t count -- by an MLS team in 2010. Steven Lenhart brought back a side that was without GBSchelotto, Frankie Hejduk, and Chad Marshall to earn a draw. But you have to think the Crew are done, needing a win in Toluca to advance. Sorry boys. Just don’t embarrass yourselves like neighbors Ohio State in a BCS game.

Lastly, let me touch on Landon Donovan and his future with Everton. As Mark wrote on Tuesday, it was an amazing performance on Sunday morning for El Dee. The goal was as well struck as any other shot scored on the weekend and the pass that set up Rodwell’s goal was hit with a bit of backspin to have it sit perfectly for the youngster to bury (how far over the goal would Edson Buddle have hit that one?).

However, now people are claiming Donovan is a hypocrite for wanting to extend his stay with Everton after criticizing David Beckham for wanting to do the same with Milan last year.

Three points on this:

First, as the author states, Donovan “admit[ed] he was ‘unfair’” to Beckham’s situation last year. So basically, he took back the statement that now makes him appear hypocritical. Of course the cynic could say he was looking ahead to this spring by doing so, but I’m not so sure that’s the case for Donovan.

Second, and more importantly to me, is how Donovan went about this loan spell. He signed an extension with MLS in the offseason that allowed him to pursue loans in Europe. That’s completely different than how Beckham, or his handlers if you want to believe Becks is a saint and never does wrong, went behind the Galaxy’s/MLS’s back to orchestrate the loan to Milan. Bruce Arena found out by a journalist’s question. Not the way to impress a new boss or endear yourself to teammates with whom you already have a tenuous relationship. Granted Donovan probably learned from Beckham’s mistakes, as Beckham himself did this past offseason, but he’s handled his situation with a lot more class than Beckham.

Lastly, Donovan only wants to extend the loan until April 15, not through the end of the season as Beckham did. That means he misses just three games for the Gals, though one is a SuperClasico. I’m not sure the impetus for just the extra month, though my two guesses are that he thinks there is going to be a delay to the start of the season and/or Everton are still banged up with Fellaini done for the year and Saha and Cahill on the mend.

Throughout all of this, and of course there’s surely some bias from me because Donovan is American and Becks is, well, Becks, I don’t think it was Donovan’s intention to stay beyond the initial loan spell. That was never the case with Beckham.

- Pat Walsh

A Day Late, But...

I try to get up a column for Monday, but this real job thing keeps getting in the way. Sorry. That being said, it was an interesting weekend for soccer:

Landon Donovan - That bastard Grant Wahl from CNNSI stole my line about the "goosebump moment" when the Everton fans started chanting "USA!" after Donovan entered the match. Then they got even louder after he got a goal (wonderful strike!) and an assist (spectacular ball!). Hell, I was impressed when the announcers brought up the MLS labor dispute and saying how it could actually work to Donovan's advantage if there was a work stoppage as he'd be more likely to stay at Everton for a spell longer. Who knew they were informed about anything from MLS???? Anyway, Donovan is playing as well as he ever has, which is good news for the U.S. and good news for the L.A. Galaxy. Granted, he was largely invisible during the match last week against the Netherlands, but that wasn't much about his play as the fact that he was marked out of the game...when that happens, SOMEBODY needs to step up. Speaking of the U.S. game;

U.S./Netherlands - Yes, I'm a week late, but let me throw out my 2 cents (Ha ha, get it?) about the match.

A. The team didn't play horribly, and should have had a man advantage for the last 60 minutes when de Jong's tackle broke Stuart Holden's leg. I actually think Holden got off lightly, as I've seen legs snapped in 2 like that in other instances. How de Jong was allowed to stay on the pitch is a wonder? Oh, right, they were in Europe, where the U.S. never gets any calls.

B. Can the Jonathan Bornstein experiment please be over? He's a good MLS player, but has proven time and again he is not up to International caliber. John Harkes said after the deflection off Bornstein for the 2nd goal, that he was "the unluckiest player on the pitch." Really? I was going to say "the worst." I have a theory on why Bornstein is seeing so much playing time, but I'll hold off on that for a bit longer. In the meantime, if Onyewu is not healthy enough to go for 90 minutes in June, and you have to keep Bocanegra central instead of the left, just play Cherundolo on the right and Spector on the left...please, for the love of God, Bob, make it so!!!

C. Jose Torres was good. He deserves a longer look than 20 minutes as a sub or 45 minutes in a half. He might not be athletic enough to go against England on June 12th, but with his skills on the ball, wouldn't he be a great option against a lesser team like Algeria, and possibly Slovenia? If Bob has a 24-man roster, he might as well use it. And we know what we're getting from Michael Bradley. We get it...he's your son...he's going to start every game for you. But would it kill you to take an extended look at a Torres/Edu pairing? Jones/Clark? (if they're ever healthy again). Gotta look at some other possibilities for when the Golden Boy is ejected or gets 2 yellows and has to sit a game. Might want to have a couple of guys who have been on the field together before.

MLS Labor Dispute - Got a good chat in with Richmond Kickers Assistant coach Jesse Myers earlier, and he had a really interesting take on the problem that I haven't seen mentioned anywhere else.

Since there is no agreement in place, MLS teams haven't really made any cuts. In fact, the rosters have gotten bigger as more and more players are in camp. Here's the problem: The 2nd and 3rd division rosters of the USL/NASL are getting close to being finalized as their seasons are only 3 weeks away. So, when the MLS dispute is resolved, and the players are released from MLS teams, where will they go? If the lower divisions are fully stacked, none of those teams will have the money to bring in very many of those released players. As Jesse told me "There will be a large amount of players who are good enough to play in the 2nd and 3rd divisions but won't be able to find a home. Then what?" Yet another interesting twist to this ongoing saga...

Player to Watch - Jonathan Villanueva - He was considered a stud his first couple of years at UVA. and at one time seemed like a sure MLS high pick. However, his play seemed to drop off a bit and his stock fell. In steps the Kickers, who sign him to a deal with the club. Richmond has a knack for finding the right players to fit their system, developing them, and helping them to grow, in many cases, to go on to the 1st division and even MLS. Villanueva might be another in that pipeline. Myers told me he thought Jon was the best player on the field in Richmond's exhibition win over VCU last weekend. Will be interesting to see how quickly he adapts to the pros.

That's it for this week. Look for Walsh to add something later in the week.

End of The Week Thoughts

Can I never ever ever be assigned #13 again?

With the amazing appearance from Morath yesterday you’ve been treated -- or maybe subjected depending on your viewpoint -- to all three of us in our return from the dead. It also added a buffer day to looking back at both Jonathan Borntein’s the USMNT’s loss to the Netherlands and the Terps scorching Duke. So instead of doing a breakdown or a winners and losers, I’m just tossing up some random thoughts about those two games and other things as well.

So here goes:

- Heitinga might be the ugliest defender I've ever seen. That said, you know Timmy Howard would have rather been playing with Everton so Heitinga was in front of him than for the USA against Holland where he was on the other team. He adds a quality no American defender has.

- It’s one of those “things that will never happen but fun to dream about” thoughts, but if international players could be traded would the U.S. send Brad Guzan to England for Wayne Bridge? Figure that Bridge isn’t playing for the Brits and Guzan may never really have an international career with Howard sure to be our starter for the next two Cups and then El Guzano would be 38 in 2022. England could surely use a ‘keeper and after Jonny Bornstein’s howler and knowing Bocanegra's lack of pace, Bob Bradley would immediately start Bridge. How about that for drama on June 12? (PS The best shirt I’ve seen about the Terry scandal said: Terry Always Scores At The Bridge.)

- Sad to see Stu Holden broke his leg. Fortunately it wasn’t as bad as Allan Ramsey’s, but it puts a serious crimp in his World Cup hopes. I say he still goes, but it’s another potential starter who won’t be fully match fit/ready come June 12. I was looking forward to seeing he and Donovan on the wings with Dempsey beneath Jozy, but I’m not sure that will happen now. Would have been nice to have another guy familiar with the English players in the starting lineup.

- Should Bob Bradley go, it will be interesting to see how JF Torres fits into the next coach’s scheme. He clearly doesn’t with Bradley thanks to a lack of playing defense -- a must for Bradley -- but with Donovan being marked out of the game it seemed like he was the most creative option. Granted I had as much of an impact on the game from my couch as Robbie Findley did so Torres didn’t have many options, but with the right boss he can surely help in qualifying for Brazil ’14.

- Both Ghana and the Ivory Coast lost on Wednesday in friendlies. I’m wondering if their odds just got better. We already have money on them of course, but I still like those two as potential Cup winners. Ghana was without several key players and the Ivory Coast should have Guus Hiddink (of South Korea’s improbably semi-final run in ’02 and Russia’s great Euro ’08) managing Didier Drogba again. I’d buy, but that’s just me jinxing them.

- Assuming the Terps win at JPJ tomorrow and win a share of the ACC regular season title, where does Greivis Vasquez wind up in the all-time players at Maryland? He’s likely going to be second in points behind only Juan Dixon, second in assists behind Steve Blake, and will be in the top 10 in ten different statistical categories. For me the top 3 have been Len Bias, Juan Dixon, and Walt Williams (without The Wizard staying Gary wouldn’t have turned the program around as quickly). Then you have guys like Elmore, King, MacMillan, Buck Williams, and John Lucas who I never saw play. I do know this though, like The Wizard in the early ‘90’s Vasquez helped keep Gary’s job in these past few years. As polarizing as he is, there’s no denying that he’s surely a top 10, if not top 5 in Terp history. Oh, and if you mention Steve Francis, please stop reading this blog.

- As great as the Terps win was, storming the court was ridiculous. A buddy of mine from Kansas immediately gave me grief and Bushman did so the following morning. I will say this was the biggest win for this class and Vasquez called them down, but there’s still no excuse for a program that won a title in the last decade. Act like you’ve been there. And the rioting needs to stop. Now. I’m all for a good celebration, even tearing down goalposts, but chanting “Defense” as cops in riot gear are marching towards you isn’t cute or funny. It’s dumb and it reflects poorly on the school. Just go to Frat Row and set some couches on fire and be relatively peaceful. (Yes, I felt old writing that paragraph.)

- Nice to see some fiscal restraint by Washington. Of course I mean the Redskins because politics ain’t gonna be discussed by me in this forum (it’s one of the things I write on my hand to remind me). It will be interesting to see how long Danny Boy keeps this new cheek turned.

On the other hand it looks like the Bears will win the Julius Peppers sweepstakes. Could be a nasty defense if everyone there is healthy. But that won’t stop Jay Cutler from throwing picks meaning Lovie Smith will be out of a job next year.

That’s it for this week. Expect to see a division created sometime next week for fantasy MLS at MFLS. And be sure to enjoy Landon’s last appearance at Goodison for Everton against Jozy Altidore and Hull on Sunday morning (FSC) before he comes back to MLS.

- Pat Walsh

With a Little Help From Some Friends...

It's a Brand New Dance Called "The Ovie"

Sometime Blogger/Most Time Slacker Scott Morath drops by to give us his expert hockey analysis into the trades made yesterday by the Washington Capitals as they make their run toward their 1st Stanley Cup title:


I LOVE the trade deadline moves by the Capitals yesterday. Here's my quick and dirty breakdown of the players acquired...

Scott Walker (RW from Carolina) - gritty veteran who can be the agitator that the Caps have lacked since Matt Cooke left for Pittsburgh following the 2007-08 season. Walker isn't afraid to drop the gloves, and he has some skill as well (as evidenced by a few 20 goal seasons on his resume). Last year he scored the OT winner in Game 7 of the conference semifinals versus Boston. Definitely worth the 7th round pick it cost to acquire him.

Eric Belanger (C from Minnesota) - a versatile 32 yr old who will improve the Caps' penalty kill (a glaring weakness for several years now). Also very good on faceoffs. Will probably center the 3rd line, but has the skill to move up to the 2nd line if need be. Acquired for 2nd round pick.

Joe Corvo (D from Carolina) - mobile D-man who can eat up minutes and generate offense from the blueline. Has a booming shot from the point and will improve an already lethal power play. Price was steep to acquire him as a rental, but he's a definite upgrade over Brian Pothier (another pending free agent who went to Carolina in the deal). Given the depth of the Capital’s farm system, the 2nd round pick and the prospect (Oskar Osala) that also went to the Hurricanes will not hamper the team in the future.

Milan Jurcina (D from Columbus) - Jurcina returns to Washington after the Caps traded him away (along with Chris Clark) to acquire Jason Chimera a few months ago. The cost was very reasonable (6th round pick), primarily because Jurcina has a sports hernia injury, and the Bluejacket’s season will almost be over by the time he's ready to play again. When healthy, Jurcina provides a much needed physical presence on D, and may wind up being a key player come playoff time.

GM George McPhee did a tremendous job, and it helps to know that two of the acquired players (Corvo and Belanger) played for head coach Bruce Boudreau in the minors when they were in the L.A, Kings system. Most importantly, McPhee didn't take on any contracts that run into next year (which is critical with Nicklas Backstrom and some of their other young players due significant raises after the season). He also didn't part with any first round draft picks, or any of the Caps' top prospects. They still have 3 promising young goalies (Semyon Varlamov, Michal Neuvirth and Braden Holtby) plus 2 top prospects on defense (Karl Alzner and John Carlson) waiting in the wings. The future looks bright in Washington, and after these latest moves, so does the present.


Scott Morath is an occasional contributor to My 2 Cents, specializing in hockey coverage and analysis.

How Does This Work Again?

Anyone else wish the Philadelphia Union would have joined

next year to avoid confusion with the MLS Union?

I’ve been thinking about writing some stuff over the past few weeks, but never really found the time to put pen to paper, or whatever the 21^st century equivalent of that is. (Finger to keyboard? That sounds like something from an old AOL chatroom.) Anyway, now that Mark wrote and broke our nearly three-month silence, I figured I might as well too. We’re not monks after all.

Two of the biggest stories outside of Vancouver since I last wrote both involve Collective Bargaining Agreements in the two professional sports Mark and I follow the most. Not the happiest of things to write about, but hopefully I’ll have something to post tomorrow in a lighter vein should the Yanks win in Amsterdam and the Terps in College Park later today. For the record, I’m not expecting either to happen.

MLS

The lack of an agreement on a new CBA is the biggest story of the offseason in domestic soccer. I still think the best read is from our friend Brian Strauss at Fanhouse. It helped me wrap my head around the free agent issue unlike anything else I’ve read, and I’ve read a lot about this. While the overall content is great, I have a problem with two arguments made by Strauss.

The first comes in this paragraph in relation to what happens after a player’s contract expires or a team decides not to exercise its option:

“If another club is interested and is willing to pay market value, MLS will make that deal. The league assumes that the new team is willing to pay some consideration, in the form of a trade with the original club, for the right to that exclusivity. If the suitor doesn't want to deal, it then risks losing that player on the waiver wire. The old club isn't going to keep the player on the books if he's not part of its plans, and it has no right to any compensation it doesn't make a meaningful effort to negotiate a new contract.”

Looking at this from an NFL perspective, LaDainian Tomlinson was just cut by the Chargers. LDT hasn’t been his Hall of Fame self the past couple of years and is on the wrong side of 30. However, if Tomlinson were an MLS player, the Chargers would likely receive a fifth or sixth round pick if another team were to sign him. It’s the idea of restricted free agency versus unrestricted and the latter just flat out doesn’t exist in MLS.

When you look at Kevin Hartman, who is no longer with the Kansas City Wizards, you can’t tell me that another club in MLS wouldn’t mind looking at him. New York surely can’t be feeling good moving into Red Bull Arena with Bouna Coundoul between the sticks. Colorado and Dallas are two other clubs that immediately come to mind. Or, what happens in Houston if Onstad goes down with an injury or Kasey Keller blows out a knee on Qwest Field’s turf? As Strauss says “[t]he league assumes that the new team is willing to pay some consideration…” meaning that Kansas City, who might not be willing to just throw one of those teams a bone, can dictate Hartman’s future. And on the flip side, how much is RBNY really going to look at him? Even if Hartman agreed to a much-reduced salary, Red Bull would also have to toss in some sort of compensation on top of that. At the least MLS must have a pre-arranged compensation as the NFL has with the tender offers teams are making in these days leading up to free agency.

Like most followers of this league, I just haven’t seen a justification for why that “consideration” is still a part of the way MLS does business. Some sort of restricted/unrestricted determination needs to be made. My thought would be to do something like five years as a professional to reach unrestricted free agency. If you’ve played in another league, like Christian Castillo who signed with D.C. United in the offseason, then you have to stay with that team for three years before you’re unrestricted. Though I doubt free agency is really going to affect these international signings as much as the Hartmans of MLS.

The other bit I disagree with Strauss is in the final paragraph where he basically says Hartman and Dave van den Bergh aren’t the ones who put fans in the seats. I agree with that statement taken at face value. But I wonder, outside of the DPs in MLS, how many players actually brings out the fans.

Come back to United where I would put a lot of money on the fact that very few people came out specifically to see Troy Perkins. However, once he left to go overseas United went from back-to-back Supporters Shields to missing the playoffs in back-to-back years. Slightly different case, of course, but it will be interesting to see how Kansas City -- who admittedly have more problems than just who is playing in goal -- do without the all-time leader in MLS wins and shutouts. Hartman and his bleached locks may not put fans in the seats, but winning does, and you need those veterans to do just that.

Otherwise with the CBA, I don’t understand why guaranteed contracts can’t be agreed upon for a season once the first game is played. Well, I can see why the owners don’t want to do so as they can drastically change a team when the summer transfer window opens, but that seems like an easy concession. On the flip side, I’m with them on not having contracts guaranteed for more than a year. It’s pretty similar to the NFL, just sans multi-million dollar signing bonuses, and a much better situation than you see in the NBA. If it were the NBA, in the near future you’d be hearing a trade involving Bobby Convey’s expiring contract.

My take on the ending? Both players and owners know they have to start the season and get through the World Cup. As I read somewhere -- I apologize to the source for not citing -- the players’ best opportunity will be just before the playoffs and I can’t disagree with that. The playoffs are almost free money in terms of gate revenue for owners and a delay could put off one of the few times the league is showcased on ABC in MLS Cup. Just a hunch though.

NFL

It certainly appears the salary cap is gone in the NFL. And it’s no surprise that, a year after spending $100 million on Albert Haynesworth (in the same way MLS spent $250M on Beckham) the Skins are rumored to be going after Julius Peppers and Darren Sproles. I figure with Peppers and Haynesworth they’ll pay about $20M per season and one of the two will give a full effort on each defensive play. Though that might be generous.

As much as I love the Redskins, and it’s tough living within walking distance of Ravens Stadium, I hate Snyder. The lack of a salary cap is the only way he can win. Period. Even so, they won’t win next year as it would take at least three years to fill all the holes in their offensive line, wide receiver, defensive line, and quarterback.

The biggest surprise though is we haven’t heard any rumors about TO coming to FedEx. I’m sure it’s just a matter of time though.

Like I said, I plan on being back tomorrow -- or Friday depending on work and likely hangover -- with a look at the U.S. probable loss against the Netherlands and Señor Night at the Comcastle.

- Pat Walsh

We're BAAAAACK!!

Just like DaMarcus Beasley (pictured above), or that pesky little booger on your finger, we just won't go away. Yep, after 3 months, Walsh and I are back and ready to deluge you with more unbelievable crap that you folks love to read. I actually had 1 or 2 people ask if we were ever coming back. Quite frankly, that's 1 or 2 more people than I thought visited the site...

But I'm finally healthy enough to work, and therefore, write, and I think Pat needed the break as well to shovel the 20 feet of snow he got in Baltimore over the past 2 months. So, with that out of the way, we've got a lot to cover, so strap yourselves in.

1. U.S. vs. Netherlands - The Yanks head to Amsterdam to take on the 3rd-ranked team in the world, although nobody thinks of the Dutch as World Cup contenders in June. Walsh and I do, and as you'll see later in the column, we were willing to put some money down on them in Vegas. Big test for the Americans, who could be without as many as 6 potential starters, or at least, the folks most of us HOPE will start June 12th against England. Seriously, Beasley and Eddie Johnson called into camp? The last time either was on form was during the FIRST term of the George W. Bush administration. The good news is that Landon Donovan is playing as well as he ever has, and you know the speculation of a full-time move to England will only grow over the next several weeks and months. Hopefully he can keep his current form, which makes him the U.S.' most dangerous player, and it's not even close. However, I'm also hoping to see a good run from Jozy Altidore. He seems to have found a rhythm at Hull City, and should only get better with additional playing time. Again, he just needs to transfer that to the International level. Hopefully Stuart Holden can play well and make a case for getting into the starting 11 also.

All that said, the U.S. just doesn't match up well in this game. Even at full strength, they don't have the firepower, or the midfield, to pose much of a challenge. I think this is the best Dutch midfield since the underachieving squad from the early 90's, and if they can just find a killer instinct, they'll do some serious damage in South Africa.

Prediction - Robben scores early, Kuyt seals it late, and the Dutch are never seriously challenged in a 2-0 win.

2. England - Some interesting scenarios and soap opera-like drama going on here. Captain John Terry (who's married with kids) nails teammate Wayne Bridge's girlfriend (now an ex-girlfriend). Terry is stripped of his Captaincy by Coach Fabio Cappello, but Bridge gives a big middle-finger to the National Team anyway as he won't play w/ Terry anymore. Now there's a bigger problem; with normal starter Ashley Cole out due to injury (happened after he went in on a challenge to Landon Donovan, ironically), Bridge was the natural replacement. Now there's a hole that needs to be fixed on the field, as well as in the locker room. In Italy, David Beckham is smiling as he is happy to finally not be the current focus of the English football media. On the good side, Wayne Rooney might just be the best player in the world right now, something that doesn't bode well for the central defense of the U.S. when they meet June 12th.

3. MLS - They don't have a collective bargaining agreement in place and the players have threatened to strike. Yet they play on, knowing it's a hell of a lot better than substitute teaching or working as a Wal-Mart greeter. I think something will get done in the next few weeks, and then the players can move on to bitching about something else they don't like about the league. As for the exhibition season, it means nothing, so we won't say much about the league until we do our predictions column in a few weeks' time.

Other Stuff

Went to Vegas (again) last week. Saw a couple of great shows in Jersey Boys and Garth Brooks (especially when Trisha Yearwood came out and joined him on stage).

Went to the new Aria Hotel and Casino and walked through Vdara, another part of the $8 billion MGM City Center project. Can't say I was impressed at all. The layout was confusing, the casino dark, the restaurants empty (when you walk by and see the chefs, waiters, and hostess all standing at the bar talking, that ain't a good sign), and the place just had no vibe. It looked and felt like something out of Europe. Somebody should have told them they were in Vegas. You gotta have SOME glitz, glamour, and tackiness. I think this place is in serious trouble already, and I would love to be a fly on the wall at the next shareholders meeting...

Funniest/weirdest thing I encountered this time: You all know I'm a Colts fan, and as I was in the Sports Book at the Gold Coast, I saw a fellow fan in Colts shirt and hat. I walked up and said "tough Super Bowl, but overall I thought we had a great season."

He responded by saying "You know Manning was on the take for that game, right? When he was on the sideline, he wasn't looking at pictures, not talking to anybody, then he throws the interception when they were going for the tie...he was obviously paid off."

No, he wasn't joking. I just smiled and walked away. What else can you say after something like that, other than "dumbass?"

Finally, since this is supposed to be a soccer/sports column, let's end on the topic of World Cup gambling (parents, don't let your kids read this part).

So Walsh and I agreed to go in on 3 teams for the tournament based on the current odds. We went with:

Ghana at 70-1. Found these odds at Boulder Station. Everyone else had 50-1 or 40-1. Sure it's a longshot, but 70-1 for arguably the best African team, who are also in the weaker of the 2 brackets? Yep, that's a no-brainer.

Ivory Coast at 20-1. Got this at Gold Coast. The odds when Pat and I agreed on this one were 25-1, but as I was getting ready to place the bet, the odds dropped to 20-1. H'mm, maybe somebody knows something we don't ( impossible, as Walsh and I are on top of everything!!!). Still, it's another African team, but that doesn't bother us. Seriously, wouldn't this year be the best chance for an African team to win it? On their own continent? Jus' sayin...

Netherlands at 10-1. The toughest of the 3 to pick. France was also at 10-1, but I think after the way they qualified against Ireland, a lot of people will be rooting against them. It might affect them. Plus, they aren't that good this year, which kinda influenced our decision. England was also in consideration at 11-2, but the team isn't that different from the one 4 years ago, except the team is now collectively 4 years older. In a short tournament like this, young legs are the key. Not sure Capello's squad has enough of those this time around. As for the Dutch, they've never won, and have never really been close since the '78 loss to Argentina in the Final. Still, they have a relatively weak group, and will more than likely play a weak opponent in the round of 16. Once you get to the quarterfinals, anything can happen.

So that's where we went with the wagering. Agree? Disagree? Share your thoughts.

FYI, here are some of the other odds when I left:

Brazil at 3-1

Spain at 7-2

Germany at 8-1

Italy at 8-1

U.S. at 30-1

Mexico at 30-1

Good to be back. Thanks as always for reading!