Groups E-H and Beyond...

I needed some help this time, so I went to my trusty buddy Homer (pictured at right), who used all the power of his brain.

Let's pick right up where I left off yesterday, starting w/ Group E:

Group E
Italy
Czech Republic
United States
Ghana

To me, this is the real "Group of Death." All 4 teams have a chance to advance, although Italy and the Czechs are widely considered the favorites to do so. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if all 4 teams finished 1-1-1 and goal differential determines who goes on. Italy is clearly the established front-runner of the group, but the scandals that have hit the Italians in their home league, combined with the numerous injuries they've suffered recently, leads me to believe this is a team on the ropes. They could band together as a unit and march through this group on their way to a deep run in the tournament, or, should they not get a favorable result against Ghana in the opening match, implode and find themselves going home after the first round, such as their less than glorious exit in the 2004 European Championship. The Czech Republic also has their share of injury problems, with Koller, Nedved, Baros, and others at less than 100%. They're ranked #2 in the world, and, when fit, can beat any team in the world. A recent news story made note that several Brazilian players have mentioned they would not want to play them in the 2nd round, as the 2nd place team from this group will most likely play Brazil. They'll need to start strong against The United States who come into this group as an underdog despite their impressive quarterfinal run in 2002. Bruce Arena is one of the best player managers in this tournament, and he's probably one of the few whose players would kill themselves for him. That can't be underestimated. although this team doesn't have as much talent as Italy or the Czechs, their fitness, athleticism, and will to win makes them capable of not only advancing out of this group, but winning it. Ghana is the team that really spoil the party. They'll be playing an injury-depleted Italian squad in the first game, and their highly skilled midfield combination of Michael Essien and Stephen Appiah could wreak havoc all over the field. If they can get a draw, or even a win, in this game, it's going to through the entire group into chaos. This is such a tough group to call. My thinking here is that the U.S. gets a result in all 3 games and wins the group, while the Czechs find a way to beat Italy in game 3 and sneak into 2nd place.

1st place - The United States
2nd place - Czech Republic

Group F
Brazil
Croatia
Australia
Japan

This is probably the easiest group to call. I've seen or read the predictions from over 150 soccer analysts and my colleagues, and not a single one of them (myself included) has anybody other than Brazil winning the group. Why should they? On paper, they are not only the best team in the tournament, but maybe the overall team since the 1970 Brazilians, widely considered the best squad ever assembled. We all know about the offensive depth and firepower they bring to the table, but there's one area where they have improved tremendously; goalkeeping. Dida is the best 'keeper they've had in some time, and with the "Samba Kings" more than likely scoring 2 or 3 goals per game, Dida won't have to be great, just pretty good. Their first game could be a bit of a struggle against the talented Croatia, but I doubt it. Croatia has struggled with their form in recent weeks, with disappointing losses to Poland and Spain in the past week. They're susceptible in the back, and there are reports of numerous people within the soccer federation concerned that the coach's son, Niko Kranjcar, is the team's playmaker. I think the nepotism thing is overblown, but if the team fails to perform in the tournament, it's obvious which two people will be blamed. If Croatia does get beaten by multiple goals in the first game, that opens the door for Australia to barge through. Although they have little experience on the world's biggest stage, many of the Aussie players ply their trade for European clubs, so any impact from traveling would be minimal. Look for key players Harry Kewell and Mark Viduka to step up big time in Germany and lead the "Socceroos" to the 2nd round. Although the travel won't affect Australia, I don't think the same can be said of Japan. They advanced to the knockout stage in 2002 as one of the host countries, and also because they were in a weak group. They'll find the challenge much tougher this time around, and so far from home. It also doesn't help that star player Hidetoshi Nakata has called the team's character into question following the recent string of bad games.

1st place - Brazil
2nd place - Australia

Group G
France
Korea Republic
Togo
Switzerland

An aging France team gets a huge break by being in arguably the weakest group of the tournament. Although the injury to Henry's front line partner Cisse is devastating, the French will have 3 games to figure out who will work best with the superstar. Like Brazil, they should clinch the group by the 3rd game, which will allow older players like Zidane and Thuram to get some rest before heading into the knockout stage. I don't think they can replicate their success of the '98 world Cup and Euro 2000 championship teams, they will still give anybody they face a grueling match. Although South Korea benefited enormously from co-hosting the tournament in 2002, where they made it to the semifinals, it wasn't a fluke. They were a good team and look to be in better shape than their rivals from Japan this time around. They have a great coach in Dick Advocaat and a world class player in Park Ji-sung, which should be enough to get them into the knockout stage. Another reason is that Switzerland and Togo should offer little resistance and will battle for 3rd place. Most of the time I would never count out a European team playing in Europe, but the Swiss are badly overmatched against most of their opponents this time around, and their suspect defense will probably yield several goals. However, they're a pretty young team, and will probably use this tournament as a springboard to a better showing in South Africa in 2010. A pay dispute has no doubt been a big distraction for Togo, who are enormous underdogs even in this group. Striker Emmanuel Adebayor needs to play the games of his life in order for them to even have a chance for a point here.

1st place - France
2nd place - South Korea

Group H
Spain
Ukraine
Tunisia
Saudi Arabia

The "in" statistic that's getting thrown around right now is that less than 5% of the teams who've lost their opening game go on to advance out of the group stage. Well, the group's 2 best teams, Spain and Ukraine, meet in the first game of the group. Win, lose, or draw, I still see both of these teams easily progressing to the 2nd round, simply because the rest of the group isn't good enough to pose much of a threat. The Spanish are historical underachievers in this tournament, but there's reason for hope this time around. Casillas is one of the world's best goalkeepers, and he has the sturdy Carles Puyol in front of him. The attacking options are numerous, with Raul desperate to make an impact on the biggest tournament in the world, and my pick to be the breakout player of this tournament, Francesc Fabregas. How he handles the pressure will go a long way to determine just how good this team can be. Ukraine, along with Sweden, is my sleeper team of the Cup. They have one of the world's top scorers in Shevchenko, who would almost be enough against the other teams in the group. However, the reemergence of Serhiy Rebrov gives the team another threat, and Manager Oleg Blockhin has been in this tournament before, as a player with the former Soviet Union. That should be crucial. Tunisia has been one of the better teams in Africa recently, but I don't like their chances this time around. They've got some experience on their roster, as several were on the 2002 squad, but they won't be able to hold off the firepower of the Spanish and Ukrainians. Saudi Arabia just hopes they can avoid a repeat of their 2002 debacle, where they gave up 8 goals to Germany in the first game enroute to 3 straight losses, 0 goals scored, and 12 scored against. Let's hope they can get one past Tunisia in the opener, otherwise they could leave the 2006 tournament with a bunch of gooseggs in the stats column once again.

1st place - Ukraine

2nd place - Spain

Round of 16

Sweden over Germany

Netherlands over Mexico

England over Costa Rica

Argentina over Portugal

USA over Australia

Spain over France

Brazil over Czech Republic

Ukraine over South Korea

Quarterfinals

Netherlands over Sweden

Spain over USA

England over Argentina

Brazil over Ukraine

Semifinals

Netherlands over Spain

England over Brazil

World Cup Final

England over Netherlands

Wow, I'm pretty surprised myself. Everyone's picking Brazil, for the most part. As great as they are, I've got this feeling they're going to stumble, albeit in the later rounds. This is England's best team in more than a generation, and even if Wayne Rooney's playing time is limited, they still have the talent to win it all.

I'll try to update the site with my thought and analysis after the day's games, so check back often and let me know what you think. You can be honest, I've already had 1 commenter ask if I was on drugs because of my Costa Rica prediction. Thanks for reading!