Capitals Round 2 Preview

At least the Caps don't have to worry about this guy this year.

By Scott Morath

(2) Washington Capitals versus (4) Pittsburgh Penguins– NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman’s dream come true, as the league’s marquee players, Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, meet in the conference semifinals.

Offense – Both teams prefer a wide open game, and there is no shortage of firepower on either side.  The Pens feature the league’s top point getter in Evgeni Malkin (35 goals, 78 assists), plus the third leading scorer in Crosby (33 goals, 70 assists).  While both players tallied 4 goals each in their six game opening round series win over Philadelphia, they are primarily playmakers, rather than pure goal scorers, and thus have a greater reliance on their linemates to put the puck in the net.  The Capitals top guns have no such concerns, as Ovechkin and his Russian countryman, Alexander Semin, combined for 90 goals during the regular season (and might have hit the century mark had Semin not missed 20 games due to injury).  Factoring in center Nicklas Backstrom and defenseman Mike Green, Washington has a wider array of elite scoring talent at their disposal, though Pittsburgh counters with an advantage in depth, with veterans Chris Kunitz, Bill Guerin and Petr Sykora all quite capable of denting the twine.  Edge: Even

Defense – Green struggled during the Capitals’ first round series, and it remains to be seen if he is nursing an injury, or was suffering from the flu (as was reported).  Regardless, he needs to play better for Washington to win this series.  John Erskine and Brian Pothier played surprisingly well as the Caps bested the offensively challenged New York Rangers in seven games, but they will be severely tested by the more skilled Penguins forwards.   Meanwhile, ex-Capital Sergei Gonchar missed much of the regular season while recovering from shoulder surgery, but his return was a huge boost for Pittsburgh down the stretch, and he’s chipped in five points in the playoffs thus far.  The key to the series for the Pens may turn out to be the play of Brooks Orpik, a highly physical defenseman who will likely be matched against Ovechkin whenever possible.  Undoubtedly, the biggest difference when comparing the blueline corps of the two teams is experience.  The Penguins’ top six defensemen account for 263 Stanley Cup playoff games in their careers, compared to just 116 playoff games for the Capitals’ top six.   Edge: Slight advantage to the Penguins based on their experience.

Special Teams – It was rather shocking to see the high-powered Penguins finish 20th in the regular season on the power play (17.2 percent), and they’re coming off of a pedestrian 4 for 33 performance in round one versus the Flyers.   Again, I think this goes back to the fact that Malkin and Crosby favor setting up their teammates to putting the puck in the net themselves.  The quarterbacking ability of Gonchar will help, as will the physical presence around the net of a veteran with over 400 regular season goals on his resume like Guerin (who was acquired at the trade deadline for this very purpose).  Meanwhile, Washington’s power play tallied 6 times against New York in the opening round, despite the Rangers boasting the top ranked penalty kill in the league.  While it’s reasonable to expect them to convert on a good number of their chances against the Penguins, it will be just as critical for the Caps that their recently improved penalty-killing unit continues to get the job done when they are down a man.  Edge: Capitals

Goaltending – Rookie Simeon Varlamov, barely twenty-one years old, was outstanding against the Rangers, allowing only seven goals in six games after getting the nod over inconsistent Jose Theodore.  Pittsburgh presents a MUCH bigger test, however, and how Varlamov bounces back after allowing 3 or 4 goals (not unlikely, given the pace this series is likely to be played at) bears watching.  At the other end of the rink, netminder Marc-Andre Fleury is among the top ten in the NHL between the pipes.  While capable of taking over a game with one eye-popping save after another, he’s also more susceptible to soft goals than Henrik Lundqvist, the goalie who stymied the Capitals at times in round one.  Still, it’s tough to go against a guy who backstopped his team to the Stanley Cup Finals last year, as Fleury did.  Edge: Penguins

Intangibles – Though he’s played very well, Ovechkin has not really caught fire yet in the playoffs, despite scoring one goal in each of games 4, 5, and 6 versus New York.  Having watched him for four seasons now, it seems that those relative lulls are usually followed by an explosion, so I look for Ovie to turn it up a notch in this next round.   I also think it plays to the Caps’ advantage that they now have less pressure, having won their first playoff series in eleven years.  The Penguins, on the other hand, made it to Game 6 of the Cup Finals last year before falling to Detroit, so their season will be considered a failure if they don’t make an extended run once again.  Additionally, don’t underestimate the impact of coaching in this series.  Pittsburgh’s Dan Bylsma is just thirty-eight years old, and only five years removed from playing in the NHL.  His promotion from the Penguins’ AHL affiliate when Michel Therien was fired in February, sparked the team, and they’ve been on a 22-5-4 run since.  Hockey is generally a game of streaks and momentum, however, and it will be interesting to see how Bylsma reacts if that inevitable downturn comes in this series.  Keep in mind, he was in his first year as a head coach at ANY level when he was summoned from Wilkes-Barre a few months ago.  Washington’s Bruce Boudreau doesn’t have much more experience at the NHL level, but has seventeen years of overall head coaching experience under his belt, including a couple of championships in the minors.  Edge: Capitals

Outlook – Regardless of who comes out on top, this one promises to be a thriller.  While many are expecting an offensive shootout, don’t be surprised to see a few tight checking 2-1 or 3-2 games in the mix as well (particularly if Fleury and Varlamov are on top of their games).  I really think the Penguins are due for a letdown, and the Capitals (3-0-1 against Pittsburgh during the regular season) may be getting them at just the right time.  I expect the Caps to play more relaxed now that they’ve won a series and further energized their fan base.  Even if things don’t go their way early on in the series, they can draw confidence from the manner in which they rebounded from a three games to one deficit in defeating the Rangers.  Plus, the surprising emergence of Varlamov has suddenly turned a weakness into a potential strength, and while this series may come down to overtime in the final game (and remember Washington has home-ice advantage), the Capitals will prevail in the end.  Capitals in 7.